I posted the other day about the current artificial intelligence cutting edge GPT-3, and its ability to write like a human. But since running across the following article, the idea of an A.I. overhang has been stuck in my head: what if artificial intelligences could get 100-1,000x more competent in a matter of only months?
An overhang is when you have had the ability to build transformative AI for quite some time, but you haven’t because no-one’s realised it’s possible. Then someone does and surprise! It’s a lot more capable than everyone expected.
I am worried we’re in an overhang right now. I think we right now have the ability to build an orders-of-magnitude more powerful system than we already have, and I think GPT-3 is the trigger for 100x larger projects at Google, Facebook and the like, with timelines measured in months.
There are numbers in the post, but the argument goes that a 100x more effective A.I. will cost in the range of only $1bn, which is a relatively small fraction of Big Tech R&D.
Intel’s expected 2020 revenue is $73bn. What if they could train a $1bn A.I. to design computer chips that are 100x faster per watt-dollar? (And then use those chips to train an even better A.I…)
At what point do self-driving cars effectively become solved… and what if it was in only 6 months? All the control couplings and sensors are there, we’re just waiting for the artificial brain.
British call centres employ 1.3 million people, 4% of the UK workforce. What if they’re 99% out of work by 2022?
What if text/voice/video synthesis and persuasion becomes a solved game, such that anyone can be scammed or hacked over email or phone or Zoom with off-the-shelf software, in the hands of anyone that buys it, robocalling a thousand people per hour? What if a covert, 95% accurate lie detector can run on a smartphone with a commodity camera and commodity mic, ship in 6 months, and cost a dollar?
What’s interesting/startling/threatening about the idea of an overhang is that the changes come from every direction and there’s no time to adjust. The logic means that - if true - it’s not preventable. Sure, new professions will emerge, and new creative opportunities, and new social norms. But in the meantime?
‘Yes, we’ll see them together some Saturday afternoon then,’ she said. ‘I won’t have any hand in your not going to Cathedral on Sunday morning. I suppose we must be getting back. What time was it when you looked at your watch just now?’ "In China and some other countries it is not considered necessary to give the girls any education; but in Japan it is not so. The girls are educated here, though not so much as the boys; and of late years they have established schools where they receive what we call the higher branches of instruction. Every year new schools for girls are opened; and a great many of the Japanese who formerly would not be seen in public with their wives have adopted the Western idea, and bring their wives into society. The marriage laws have been arranged so as to allow the different classes to marry among[Pg 258] each other, and the government is doing all it can to improve the condition of the women. They were better off before than the women of any other Eastern country; and if things go on as they are now going, they will be still better in a few years. The world moves. "Frank and Fred." She whispered something to herself in horrified dismay; but then she looked at me with her eyes very blue and said "You'll see him about it, won't you? You must help unravel this tangle, Richard; and if you do I'll--I'll dance at your wedding; yours and--somebody's we know!" Her eyes began forewith. Lawrence laughed silently. He seemed to be intensely amused about something. He took a flat brown paper parcel from his pocket. making a notable addition to American literature. I did truly. "Surely," said the minister, "surely." There might have been men who would have remembered that Mrs. Lawton was a tough woman, even for a mining town, and who would in the names of their own wives have refused to let her cross the threshold of their homes. But he saw that she was ill, and he did not so much as hesitate. "I feel awful sorry for you sir," said the Lieutenant, much moved. "And if I had it in my power you should go. But I have got my orders, and I must obey them. I musn't allow anybody not actually be longing to the army to pass on across the river on the train." "Throw a piece o' that fat pine on the fire. Shorty," said the Deacon, "and let's see what I've got." "Further admonitions," continued the Lieutenant, "had the same result, and I was about to call a guard to put him under arrest, when I happened to notice a pair of field-glasses that the prisoner had picked up, and was evidently intending to appropriate to his own use, and not account for them. This was confirmed by his approaching me in a menacing manner, insolently demanding their return, and threatening me in a loud voice if I did not give them up, which I properly refused to do, and ordered a Sergeant who had come up to seize and buck-and-gag him. The Sergeant, against whom I shall appear later, did not obey my orders, but seemed to abet his companion's gross insubordination. The scene finally culminated, in the presence of a number of enlisted men, in the prisoner's wrenching the field-glasses away from me by main force, and would have struck me had not the Sergeant prevented this. It was such an act as in any other army in the world would have subjected the offender to instant execution. It was only possible in—" "Don't soft-soap me," the old woman snapped. "I'm too old for it and I'm too tough for it. I want to look at some facts, and I want you to look at them, too." She paused, and nobody said a word. "I want to start with a simple statement. We're in trouble." RE: Fruyling's World "MACDONALD'S GATE" "Read me some of it." "Well, I want something better than that." HoME大香蕉第一时间
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I posted the other day about the current artificial intelligence cutting edge GPT-3, and its ability to write like a human. But since running across the following article, the idea of an A.I. overhang has been stuck in my head: what if artificial intelligences could get 100-1,000x more competent in a matter of only months?
There are numbers in the post, but the argument goes that a 100x more effective A.I. will cost in the range of only $1bn, which is a relatively small fraction of Big Tech R&D.
Intel’s expected 2020 revenue is $73bn. What if they could train a $1bn A.I. to design computer chips that are 100x faster per watt-dollar? (And then use those chips to train an even better A.I…)
At what point do self-driving cars effectively become solved… and what if it was in only 6 months? All the control couplings and sensors are there, we’re just waiting for the artificial brain.
British call centres employ 1.3 million people, 4% of the UK workforce. What if they’re 99% out of work by 2022?
What if text/voice/video synthesis and persuasion becomes a solved game, such that anyone can be scammed or hacked over email or phone or Zoom with off-the-shelf software, in the hands of anyone that buys it, robocalling a thousand people per hour? What if a covert, 95% accurate lie detector can run on a smartphone with a commodity camera and commodity mic, ship in 6 months, and cost a dollar?
What’s interesting/startling/threatening about the idea of an overhang is that the changes come from every direction and there’s no time to adjust. The logic means that - if true - it’s not preventable. Sure, new professions will emerge, and new creative opportunities, and new social norms. But in the meantime?